Can what we’re doing make a difference?

Notes on Our Nonviolent Mass Movement Strategy

by Dean Briggs

Questions we’re asked:

“Rallies across the country: what have they accomplished?”

“Are national advocacy organizations on the right track, or are they just making the other side more aggressive?”

“Wouldn’t it be better to let our elected officials deal with Trump?”

“My congressman seems to be doing nothing other than posting speeches on social media. What makes you think phone calls will move him to action?”

What are some answers to these questions? And is there evidence that our tactics work?

Social scientists have been studying democracies backsliding into authoritarianism — and what works to arrest the slide — for quite a long time. They’ve analyzed more than 100 years’ worth of data to address these questions.¹

What we know about the effectiveness of nonviolent protest and resistance to authoritarianism²

Public, nonviolent demonstrations in opposition to authoritarian governments are among the most effective techniques for restoring democracy. Nonviolent movements are, on average, 11 times larger than violent movements, and they are more strategic and more inclusive.
Violent protest is far less effective and may replace one authoritarian government with another. When authoritarian regimes use violence, it can backfire and fuel the growth of pro-democracy movements.³
Public protest, coupled with support from elected officials, is even more effective and succeeds about 52% of the time.
By contrast, public passivity, with opposition coming only from institutions, is far less effective, succeeding about 7.5% of the time.
Countries that are most successful at reversing the backslide have these features in common with the United States:
- A well-established history of democracy.
- Robust civil society with strong, independent businesses, universities and religious institutions.
- A history of nonpolitical military and civil service
- State and local governments with their own responsibilities and authority.
- Support from external parties, such as activists in other democracies rallying for our movement.

More recent anti-authoritarian movements have been less effective, in part because authoritarian governments have been sharing their playbooks with each other.
The sooner resistance begins in a backsliding country, the better.
Some restorations bring a country to a higher level of democracy that it had before the authoritarian backslide.

By the time a large proportion of the population is aware that their country is sliding into autocracy, it has often been going on for years. Our movement hopes to reverse our country’s authoritarian direction in 3 to 4 years, but the average time historically to reverse a slide and restore democracy — for movements that succeed — is 10 years.

Key Unknowns

What are the advantages and disadvantages of internet connectivity and social media for authoritarians and democrats alike?
- China has been effective at restricting public dissent by controlling the internet. Western technology and tools are much less restricted than theirs, except for our social media, which is trying to appease the authoritarians.
Can we succeed at the polls with a weak and unpopular opposition party?
- The Democratic Party currently enjoys a 27-38% favorability rating,⁴ although some individual elected officials are maintaining higher favorability on their own, including Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Cory Booker, Tim Walz, Pete Buttigieg and Jasmine Crockett.⁵
- Elected officials responding with business as usual have a low likelihood of reversing the slide.
How effective will our movement be at mobilizing a sufficient percentage of residents to attend public rallies?
- Research has shown that democracies can recover if 3.5% of the population is visibly active on the streets in a “peak event” (nonviolent protest), although some are successful with less and others are unsuccessful with more.⁶ This is one of the central challenges for us nationally as Indivisibles.

Do knowledge and Indivisible strategy align?

Indivisible has been following the democracy restoration playbook, but right-wing Trump backers have been planning their authoritarian push for a long time. They are moving fast, have considerable resources, and have been nimble. Building a mass movement takes time; the courts are acting as a firebreak while the opposition builds. The national Indivisible strategy, and that of hundreds of other groups in the movement, is to build the numbers on the street — to be visible and nonviolent. It also aims to pressure elected officials to be active and anticipatory, rather than passive and reactive. The movement will need to innovate, be bold and stay nimble.

Tactics

Numbers matter.

With every insult to our democracy — to veterans, public schools, universities, farmers, small businesses, retirees — opposition, and our numbers, will continue to grow. The Trump coalition is already fragmenting — did you notice all the truckers honking their horns and waving when they saw the “No Tariffs” signs at your recent rally?

Indivisible and its co-founders have national visibility, and our thousands of rallies nationwide have local visibility. It’s easy to start a local Indivisible group, support is available, and local groups are easy to join. Indivisibles and other activists have rallied quickly to defend early authoritarian playbook targets — immigrants, LGBTQ people, government employees and agencies. In addition to the courts, Indivisible and our legion of allies are also acting as a firebreak while less engaged Americans become outraged and active.

We need to build our movement, so encourage your friends to join, and engage new members in the work. As Leah Greenberg observed, “We are building the muscle for what is to come.”

We can influence elected officials.

The emerging, nationwide pro-democracy movement is strongly urging Democratic and independent members of congress to join the few who are already speaking up and taking bold action. Call campaigns are one of the tactics we use, and in Massachusetts we prioritize our campaigns through the Coordinated Action Dispatches program of three or four recommended actions per week. They’re published in our newsletter, Mass Action. You can sign up for it here.

Another tactic is calling for and attending town halls. At those, as on our phone calls, we can strongly encourage elected officials to take specific actions.

At the federal level, taking the administration to court and holding rallies in red districts is more effective than simply complaining on social media. At the state level, we must encourage legislators to pass laws to protect vulnerable residents and the professionals and institutions that serve them. At the local level, we must ensure that police and municipal officials are not aiding ICE’s warrantless abductions. We need to restore hospitals, schools and religious institutions as safe zones.

We also must assume normality: There will be elections. Many executive actions are illegal and should be protested. We can’t cede anything. As Leah Greenberg noted recently, we need to push for honest elections; that will help us build coalitions.

We must encourage our states to build coalitions as well. As Greenberg said, “We need to make sure that every one of our electeds is at the maximum output and effectiveness level.”

Quick action is critical.

Communities were unprepared for early moves by ICE. Because of rapid action by community groups, some immigrants have been released and others have had their deportations stayed or have been kept in their own communities rather than in detention centers thousands of miles away. The key is to be prepared for other illegal moves by the federal government and to have tactics in place to deal with them, such as phone trees, plans to contact allies and the media, and quickly organized rallies.

Training is essential for everyone.

Border czar Tom Homan complained that it was difficult to capture immigrants in Chicago because everyone had rights training. Indivisibles need training, too. Research shows that a trained activist movement is more effective. Examples include training marshals for rallies, leadership development for new Indivisible groups, antiracism education, and building organizing skills.

Pace yourself.

This is just the beginning of the beginning. It will be a long haul to restore democracy, and we can’t stop until the job is complete. As we work toward this goal, we must remember that the objective is justice for all. With U.S. income inequality at a 100-year high, we must strive for economic justice. And we must also join the struggle to end racism and discrimination in all its forms.

Dean Briggs is a member of the Indivisible Mass Coalition Communications Team and Indivisible Boros and Beyond.