by Dean Briggs

Hungary’s ousting of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after his 16-year career of increasing authoritarianism, corruption, media suppression and rampant crony capitalism has important lessons for pro-democracy activists in the United States. Here, I highlight a few and underscore opportunities for our movement.

What happened in Hungary

Péter Magyar, a member of Orbán’s conservative party, became disillusioned with the corruption and broke with the party. His campaign became a disruptive force, reinvigorated a small independent political party, and challenged the corruption, authoritarianism, economic stagnation and lack of job opportunities for Hungarians. 

Citizens had also become tired of the regime’s media suppression, chronic lying, hate speech, vilification of immigrants and LGBTQ people, distancing from the European Union, and increasing embrace of Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

Orbán had made himself an outcast in the European Union, blocking support for a €90 billion loan to Ukraine and blaming both for the problems in his country. He also created an ICE-like anti-terror unit that he enlarged surreptitiously into his own secret police force. Despite efforts by President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance to prop up Orbán’s sagging campaign, the failing populist lost decisively all over the country.

Following the strongest voter turnout since communism ended, Magyar’s party won 69% of the seats in parliament. Significantly, voters under 30 participated heavily in overturning Orbán’s government. 

Magyar ran as a conservative who promised to lift the economy, end the corruption, strengthen ties with the EU and remove the onerous laws and regulations imposed on people and institutions in the country. Whether or not he will keep those promises, the lessons from his campaign are encouraging.

What we can learn from the Hungarian experience

Some of the Hungarian democratic uprising is straight from Erica Chenoweth’s and Maria Stephan’s playbook on effective nonviolent resistance to authoritarian regimes. Mass rallies showed the broad base of resistance to the Orbán regime, which engaged many young people and empowered ordinary citizens to speak out. This helped to overcome the messaging from Orbán-controlled media and online sources, as well as Russian election meddling.

In Magyar (whose name means, literally, “Hungarian”), Hungarians see a new and disruptive force — a leader who speaks honestly, is not part of the elite kleptocracy, and who reflects traditional values. After years under the Soviet yoke, Hungarians value their freedom and are eager to develop their economy through greater EU engagement.

In what ways is the Hungarian election different from ours?

There are similarities but also significant differences between Hungary and the U.S., so the analogy can’t be overdrawn.

Hungary is only the size of New Jersey, and its institutions are less rigidly entrenched. In the U.S., an individual like Magyar can’t sweep in and take over a party and dramatically switch the organization in one cycle. It took Trump a decade to eviscerate the old Republican party and fully institute his own regime. Insurgents are unlikely to take over the Democratic Party and turn it into a force of activism in one or even two election cycles. 

Orbán is more of a traditional authoritarian politician than Trump. Much of Orbán’s support came from individuals and groups he had enriched through corrupt contracting and other practices. It was a transactional relationship, not a romance. When the economy soured due to Orbán’s disregard for the needs of average Hungarians, voters made another choice.

By contrast, Trump’s base of “MAGA Hardliners” arguably resembles a cult, where adherents derive much of their identity from belonging. When the leader (and their identity) are threatened, they double down. This resilient base of 27% to 38% of voters — including two-thirds of Republicans — will weather the various crises and stand by their man.

At this writing, the U.S. economy is sagging, gasoline has gone from $2.92 to $4.02 nationally since the self-inflicted Iran war began, and Americans report being exhausted from the divisiveness in the country. 

Hungary had a heavy turnout of under-30 voters. Will we see that here? Pundits who speak for that generation say their resistance moment will take place during the fall elections, but 18-year-olds have low voter registration, and state voter suppression laws may keep those numbers low. Social media is another voter suppressant. One tool to fight youth voter apathy is to encourage in-person social gatherings.

The odds did not favor Magyar; as a smart lawyer, Orbán had spent years developing a thicket of media, laws and regulations to suppress opponents. By contrast, Trump does not respect laws or courts, is impulsive, and signals all his moves through accusations of others — something counterstrategists have on their side.

A different dynamic for the U.S. is whether Trump will finish his current term. Prediction markets estimate a 40% chance he won’t. If Trump is a one-off, will voters adhere to his replacement? Pundits say they will, if he stays with Trump’s policies. If it’s Vance, he already has the support of the tech bros and Trump’s sons. But don’t expect a radical change in direction. Our work will be the same.

In Politico, Alexander Burns summarizes lessons for Democrats, based on insurgent candidates’ recent successes worldwide:

• “As Trump himself has shown, it is possible to devour a major party from the inside — commandeering an old institution with grassroots support, casting aside its entrenched leaders, remaking it in a new image and earning a fresh look from voters who didn’t like the old version.”
• “It takes a special kind of candidate to carry a political project like this, and probably not one likely to win popularity contests with members of a conventional party committee or legislative caucus.”
• “If Democrats want to take the hint, they’ll give a closer look to the leaders frustrating their peers in Washington and defying their home-state political bosses….”
• “The strongest successor to Trump — from either party — would not be a ladder climber awaiting his or her turn, but rather someone ready to claim the role through disruption and combat.”

These disruptive actions are already underway. Democratic representatives are being challenged by insurgents in 30 congressional districts across 18 states, including two in Massachusetts. A recurring theme in these campaigns is incumbents’ flaccid opposition to the Trump regime and the Republican-controlled Congress. 

Another dividing line — particularly for some candidates and their young supporters — is the war in Gaza and Democrats’ unwillingness to acknowledge and oppose genocide there.

What activists can do

Republican Lite — center-right proposals that merely restore the 2024 state of affairs voters rejected last time — are insufficient. And the old Democratic politics — and politicians — will not win. 

Our movement is already identifying bold new candidates with ideas that speak to voters’ issues and concerns. 

Progressive leaders have much to say about where to focus our efforts in this year’s Democratic primaries. Endorsements are one example. Watch for new candidates being supported by trusted progressives. 

Get involved early, with grassroots efforts 

The work is already underway, and your help is needed now to affect the outcome:

• Swing Left’s Ground Truth project is training and fielding canvassers in contested congressional districts to learn about voters’ concerns and issues and bringing them — unfiltered — to the campaigns.
  Our members and allies Indivisible Northampton – Swing Left Western Mass, Swing Blue Alliance (Cambridge), Swing Left Jamaica Plain and others are working with Ground Truth. 
• If campaigning on the ground isn’t your thing, you can contribute to Ground Truth’s campaign for flippable seats. 
• Mobilize lists many campaign events — here’s a sample.
• Your activism also can take the form of phone banking, postcard writing and other contributions. IN-SLWM and SBA, as well as Rise Up Western Mass host these activities.

I hope that, when our pro-democracy efforts reverse the slide into authoritarianism, we too can sing Queen’s “We Are the Champions” (0:35) at mass rallies as the Hungarians did. 

Notes: 1. This story was prepared with the assistance of AI for research; all sources were verified. 2. The author regrets that many sources are paywalled.

Dean Briggs is a member of the IMC Communications Team, Indivisible Boros and Beyond, and Nashoba Indivisible. 

IndivisiBlog posts reflect the opinions of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policy positions of Indivisible Mass Coalition.